Methodology

Opportunity

What it is. A measure of how worth-investigating a project looks right now, based on its economic momentum, valuation and token economics.

What high or low means. A higher Opportunity Score means the current data supports a stronger case for further research. It is not a ranking of investment merit.

Why it matters. It helps you decide where to spend your research time.

Limitations. Opportunity is computed from the data available today. Missing data reduces it, and a high score is not a guarantee of future returns.

Risk

What it is. Measurable factors that could hurt a project or an investment thesis, such as dilution, weak token value or declining growth.

What high or low means. Higher risk means more observed downside factors. It does not mean a loss is certain.

Why it matters. Knowing the main risks lets you weigh them against the opportunity.

Limitations. Only measurable risks are shown. Risks that cannot be quantified from public data are not captured.

Confidence

What it is. How far the available data actually supports an analysis.

What high or low means. Higher confidence means the underlying data is more complete and coherent. Lower confidence usually means missing or weak data.

Why it matters. It tells you how much weight to give an analysis.

Limitations. Low confidence is not the same as a bad project — it means we do not have enough evidence yet.

Upside

What it is. A forecast view of the current forces that could favour appreciation.

What high or low means. Higher Upside means more current drivers point upward. It is a scenario, not a prediction.

Why it matters. It summarises the bull case from the data.

Limitations. Upside does not estimate how much a price could rise and never sets a target.

Downside Risk

What it is. A forecast view of the current factors that could hurt the thesis or the price.

What high or low means. Higher Downside Risk means more current downside factors are present.

Why it matters. It summarises the bear case from the data.

Limitations. Downside Risk is a scenario view, not a probability of loss.

Forecasts

What it is. Scenario-based outlooks (what could help and what could hurt) built from current data. They are not price predictions.

What high or low means. Forecasts show Upside, Downside Risk and Confidence, never a price target or a probability of profit.

Why it matters. They organise the bull and bear case so you can form your own view.

Limitations. Forecasts depend on current data and do not model future events that are not yet visible.

Investment Monitor

What it is. A monitor of whether the reasons behind an opportunity are still holding, weakening, or broken.

What high or low means. An Investment Thesis Change means a condition the thesis depended on is no longer holding; a Clear means it recovered.

Why it matters. It tells you when the story changes, which is often more important than the score itself.

Limitations. Investment conditions are only as good as the metrics they watch.

Catalysts

What it is. Verified project events (funding, listings, mainnet, unlocks, security) that could materially change an investment thesis.

What high or low means. Catalysts are shown only when backed by recorded evidence, never from rumour.

Why it matters. Upcoming and recent events can be the trigger that changes an investment case.

Limitations. The catalyst ledger currently has limited data; an empty state is honest, not a bug.

Smart Money

What it is. Money-flow data that attributes flows to known entities (funds, whales, treasuries).

What high or low means. Smart Money conclusions are only shown when sufficient verified attribution exists.

Why it matters. Knowing who is accumulating or distributing can add context to an investment.

Limitations. Verified entity coverage is still limited, so Smart Money conclusions are only shown when enough attribution exists. Large wallet activity is shown separately and is not labelled as Smart Money.

Event History

What it is. Historical evidence of what happened after verified events, using canonical daily snapshots.

What high or low means. It measures price and TVL reactions across 1D/3D/7D/14D/30D windows, always showing the sample size (N).

Why it matters. It shows whether similar past events were typically followed by positive or negative moves — without claiming causation.

Limitations. Historical samples are still accumulating. Small samples are shown as Limited history or Not enough data yet, and historical reaction is never presented as a forecast.

Data Reliability

What it is. How complete and reliable the source data is for a project.

What high or low means. Higher Data Reliability means more inputs are present and the project/token matching is stronger.

Why it matters. Analysis built on poor data should carry less weight.

Limitations. Data Reliability measures inputs, not the correctness of any conclusion.

Scores

Economic Score summarises observable protocol economics, growth, valuation and market activity. Fundamentals considers economic quality, token value, token supply risk, revenue quality and data reliability. Token Supply Risk highlights measurable dilution; higher means more observed risk.

Signals

Signals describe current observed conditions (for example ACCUMULATION or OVERHEATED). They are research indicators only, never buy or sell recommendations.

Peer Comparison

Peer comparisons use trusted projects in the same sector only and remain unavailable when the eligible sample is insufficient.

Narratives

Narratives are deterministic sector aggregates from the current protocol dataset. Low samples and incomplete coverage are shown as warnings.

Historical Reliability

Forecasts are evaluated only after their target date using the nearest valid target price. Direction Accuracy compares expected and actual return signs; Median Absolute Error and Signed Error measure accuracy. Outcomes without a valid target price stay visible as unresolved. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Data Trust

Canonical sources are DefiLlama and CoinGecko when present. VALID data is current; DEGRADED_BUT_SAFE may be served with warnings; REJECTED data is not current. UNKNOWN means insufficient evidence to classify — it does not mean false.